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Quantified Distribution Proposal -Justice Criteria- Mitigation Goals RCP2.6/IPCC. RESURBE Program

Organized by Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC), Erasmus University Rotterdam and Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT)

Josep Xercavins, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, opened the session on the presentation of modeling results to quantify distributions of emissions for UNFCCC parties based on climate justice criteria using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report's Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6.


Noting that carbon budget-based burden-sharing proposals had been largely at the margins of the negotiations, Martin Khor, South Centre, stressed the need for collaboration between institutions working on translating carbon budgets into concrete proposals. He highlighted several implications of a budget sharing approach including: the need for developed countries to reduce emissions very quickly, especially to afford developing countries potential to make social progress; and the necessity to transfer money and resources to developing countries so that development can be achieved within the limited carbon budget.


Xercavins introduced the model and provided the general rationale for the exercise, discussing the political and scientific basis for the model. Olga Alcaraz, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya presented the details of the model and said the primary achievement of the modeling exercise was to be able to calculate what the future emissions should be for each country based on a corresponding carbon budget by applying the criterion of climate justice per capita for all parties. Using India an example, she stated the modeling results demonstrate that while India's share of global emissions was only 3.6 per cent over the last 40 years, India can justifiably emit 18.2 per cent of the available carbon budget, approaching up to 3.3 tCO2 per capita for 2011-2050 and 1.5 tCO2 for 2011-2011. She noted that India could increase emissions until 2025 and take advantage of a more advanced technological context to make future reductions.


Closing the session, Xercavins said one of the goals of the session was to create a taskforce to introduce the concept of mitigation with climate justice per capita in the negotiations for the Paris agreement. With the carbon budget approach, he said it was not necessary for parties to focus on details that are currently being discussed under mitigation such as reference years, percentage of reduction of emissions, and peak years.